With Christmas being next week, I would prefer to have good news to write about, but unfortunately that feels in short supply this year.  Recent economic data coming out suggests storm clouds appear to be gathering for our economy for 2025.

GDP data last week showed that there was a second successive month of economic contraction in October.  Both September and October each saw our economy shrinking by 0.1% and the indicators for November are implying there will be a third successive month of our economy getting smaller.

Prior to the July general election, our economy was growing and unemployment was at very low levels.  Sadly, this looks like it is unravelling as we now have a government that doesn’t understand business and the basic premise that borrowing, debt and higher taxes does not create economic growth.

Media reports over the last few days have stated that job vacancies are evaporating, as the implications of the government’s budget on 30 October start to take effect. BBC News reported that one of the largest recruitment firms said that job vacancies advertised on their website had dropped by 13% between October and November.  The firm’s owner was quoted as saying "that worries me because when I've seen that in the past, it's been an indication that recession is around the corner".

The Labour Government’s rise in Employers National Insurance contributions doesn’t take effect until April, but the impact is already being felt and that’s bad news for jobseekers and for our economy.  In turn, this will affect the amount available for public services.  This then risks further tax rises and borrowing in what becomes a vicious circle.  I suspect like many of their false promises, that Labour will quietly drop economic growth as their ‘core mission’, rather than admit they are failing here too.

Hopefully a recession will not happen next year, but I am concerned about potential impacts on our local economy, including Labour’s unhelpful higher air passenger duty at airports.  Let us all do everything we can to support Crawley’s local businesses during this important Christmas and New Year period.     

Councillor Duncan Crow, Leader of Crawley Borough Council Conservative Group

18th December 2024